5-step decision framework: from epistemics to action

Every decision passes through 5 steps, each with its own checklist:

1. Epistemic check (Munger/Parrish) — Where’s my circle of competence? Is my map accurate enough? What am I assuming without evidence?
2. Systems analysis (Meadows/Senge) — What feedback loops? Where are the leverage points? What time delays?
3. Temporal consideration (Taleb/Dalio) — What time horizon? Is it Lindy-compliant? Second-order effects?
4. Risk/reward assessment (Taleb) — Upside vs downside asymmetry? Can I survive the worst case? Does this make me more antifragile?
5. Execution (Dalio) — Apply principles systematically. Document the decision. Pain + Reflection = Progress.

Key insight: the framework doesn’t allow skipping. You can’t assess risk (step 4) without systems analysis (step 2). This protects against impulsive decisions disguised as rational ones.

Links to stream-six-layers — the framework walks through STREAM layers bottom-up. Links to optimizer-syndrome — the framework enables satisficing: completed 5 steps → decided → move on.